TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 24.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair has declined to support level at 1.34882. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.34218.
Resistance: 1.35984, 1.37486, 1.38554
Support: 1.34882, 1.33143, 1.31674

GBPUSD
The pair is testing 1.60322 for support. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.58543.
Resistance: 1.62050, 1.63316, 1.64636
Support: 1.60322, 1.58543, 1.56722

USDCHF
The pair has declined to the support level at 0.91079.
Resistance: 0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949
Support: 0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418

USDJPY
The pair is trading around 98.718.
Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567
Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD
The pair is trading between 0.94635 and 0.93493.
Resistance: 0.94635, 0.95611, 0.96579
Support: 0.93493, 0.92284, 0.91360

GBP/USD 24 Sept 2013

The pair advanced higher yesterday but no major developments took place; a contributing factor was the relatively calm fundamental scene.

Technical Outlook
The pair seems to be headed for 1.6170 again but a retracement lower in the 1.5960 area is still not out of the question. In fact we believe another touch of this minor support is necessary before price can resume its upward path. This encounter with support is likely to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals will be released today at 08:30 am GMT and are expected to increase from the previous 37.2 to 38.6. This indicator offers insight into the UK housing market and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 24 Sept 2013

The Forex Market: Unlike we expected, yesterday’s speech of ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t generate strong moves and the pair is still trading near the level of 1.3520 after another day when price was capped by a 65 pip range.

Technical Outlook
The pair did not choose a clear direction yesterday but the sellers managed to have some sort of control and took price below 1.3520. However, we cannot consider this move a true break of the level because it occurred on low volume and at the moment, the level is being re-tested from below. Our bias is still bullish and we anticipate at least a double top at 1.3570. The trend line drawn from the beginning of the month will offer support if touched and the same is true for the level of 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is announced, with the forecast being 108.4 compared to the previous 107.5. Higher numbers than forecast indicate optimism and are beneficial for the Euro. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the United States announce the Consumer Confidence which is a key indicator of future consumer spending which in turn represents the majority of overall economic activity. The indicator is expected to decrease slightly from the previous 81.5 to 79.9.

GBP/USD 23 September 2013

The pair continued its descent, almost nullifying the Pound’s gains obtained previously during the week but the movement was rather slow.

Technical Outlook

We consider that for today’s trading session a touch of 1.5960 is likely. If price gets there, a bounce higher is anticipated and possibly an attempt to resume the uptrend. Due to the correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD, Mario Draghi’s speech will have a hefty impact and we expect price to follow to an extent the movement of EUR/USD.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release any important data today and the pair’s movement will mostly be driven by the technical aspect.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 23 September 2013

The Forex Market: Friday’s movement was ranging and undecided, with both the buyers and sellers going back and forth in an attempt to gain the upper hand. No major economic data came out and this contributed to the ranging movement.

Technical Outlook

The major momentum belongs to the bulls and we may see a continuation move to the upside. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is last week’s high located at 1.3568. To the downside the first level of interest is 1.3450 but the technical aspect may be overshadowed by today’s fundamental events.


Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day and possibly of the week is the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. He is due to testify on the Euro Zone economic situation in Brussels, before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and volatility is expected; the direction depends on his attitude and comments.
Earlier in the day, at 07:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 50.2 compared to the previous 49.7 and half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI comes out. The anticipated value is 52.3 from the previous 51.8. Better than anticipated numbers for both indicators usually strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 20.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar index fell to its a seven-month low to 80 mark, after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates at the current level of 0.25 %, and keep the size of the monthly program of asset purchases at the previous level of $ 85 billion. The authorities found it necessary to wait for the new signs of steady improvement in the economy.


Japanese Yen: After the Ministry of Finance of Japan stated at the publication of the Government's report on the trade balance of the country that the trade deficit decreased to ?960 billion y ($ 9.8 billion) in August, while analysts expected a rise in the deficit to ?1,100 billion the yen continued to fall against all major currencies after. The USD / JPY pair rose to Y99.0 area.

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand dollar rose after a report published today gross domestic product report for the second quarter showed an increase by 2.5 %, exceeding the average forecast of analysts, who expected to see growth of 2.3%.

Swiss franc: The Swiss franc rose slightly against the dollar amid the release of economic forecasts SECO. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday cited the increase in domestic demand and raised its economic forecast for Switzerland for 2013 and 2014,
.

American trading session:


U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar rose slightly against its competitors after data on the labor market and U.S. housing, which were announced by the Department of Labor, showed that at the end of last week, the week ending September 14, the number of American workers who first applied for unemployment benefits rose slightly, increasing by 15K people, and reaching a level of 309K. The result was significantly better than the forecasts of experts who had expected growth to 323K from 292K, which was originally reported last month.

British Pound:  The pound fell markedly against the dollar, which in the first place was due to the publication from the Office for National Statistics of the weak performance on Britain. As it was shown by data, at the end of last month the amount of UK retail sales unexpectedly contracted due to marked decline in sales in food stores. According to the report, in a monthly basis, retail sales including automotive fuel, fell last month to 0.9%, while experts averaged this value by growth by 0.5%. Also, the data showed that sales excluding automotive fuel fell 1 percent after rising by 1.2% in July, while economists forecasted that they will remain unchanged.

Gold: The cost of the October gold futures on COMEX today rose to $ 1375.80 per ounce. The prices rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave unchanged its program of bonds purchasing. A promise of continuing pursuing a policy of "cheap money” has increased the demand for the precious metal.

Oil:  The cost of WTI oil brand fell for the fourth time in five days after the oil production in Libya has increased and President of Syria Bashar al-Assad said that Syria will provide information about its chemical weapons. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 107.00 a barrel on the NYMEX.