USDCHF Falling Wedge

The USDCHF currency pair has formed a falling wedge formation which is a bullish chart pattern. MACD indicates momentum has stabilized while RSI is trading in oversold territory.

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 24.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: After data on business sentiment in Germany, which were weaker than expected the euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar. The Ifo survey showed that business climate index rose to 107.7 in September from a revised 107.6 in August, while many economists' expected it at the level of 108.4. Also, the Ifo business expectations index rose to 104.2 in September from 103.3 in the previous month, where accordingly to forecasts the index had to grow to 104 mark. The current conditions index fell slightly to 111.4 from 112 in August with forecast an increase to 112.6. The EUR / USD pair fell to $ 1.3470 during the European session.


British Pound: The British pound fell against the dollar after the data that showed that the approved applications for mortgage loans increased in August, both in quantity and in value terms in the UK. The data presented by the British Bankers Association (BBA) confirmed that the number of mortgages approved for house purchase rose to 38,228 which is the highest level since 2009. However, the August level was below the consensus of the forecast of 38650. In value terms, mortgage applications to purchase homes rose to 6 billion British pounds from 5.8 billion pounds in July. In addition, the data showed that the level of unsecured borrowing rose by 0.3% compared with a year earlier. As part of the annual growth of credit cards was 6.7 % surpassing the personal loans and overdrafts, which grew by 5.1%. The GBP / USD pair fell to $ 1.5956 during the European session.


New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar: The currency of Australia and New Zealand fell against most major currencies amid falling Asian stock indexes, departing from theirs the four-month high.
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American trading session:


U.S. Dollar: The dollar allowed for its competitors to recover some of the lost ground which was helped by the U.S. data, demonstrated that the consumer confidence presented by Conference Board fell in September. The Index is currently 79.7 compared to 81.8 in August. The current conditions index rose to 73.2 from 70.9. And the expectations index fell to 84.1 from 89.0 last month.


Gold: The gold prices declined moderately today, registering with the decline in the fourth session in a row, which was associated with the strengthening of the dollar. The cost of the October gold futures dropped to $ 1315.00 per ounce on COMEX today.


Oil: The cost of WTI oil futures fell slightly, dropping at the same time below $ 102.80 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased, and there were some new evidence of increases in oil supplies from Libya and Iraq.
 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 24.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair has declined to support level at 1.34882. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.34218.
Resistance: 1.35984, 1.37486, 1.38554
Support: 1.34882, 1.33143, 1.31674

GBPUSD
The pair is testing 1.60322 for support. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.58543.
Resistance: 1.62050, 1.63316, 1.64636
Support: 1.60322, 1.58543, 1.56722

USDCHF
The pair has declined to the support level at 0.91079.
Resistance: 0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949
Support: 0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418

USDJPY
The pair is trading around 98.718.
Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567
Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD
The pair is trading between 0.94635 and 0.93493.
Resistance: 0.94635, 0.95611, 0.96579
Support: 0.93493, 0.92284, 0.91360

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 24.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro:The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar after the data on manufacturing activity in the euro area came out weaker than economists' expectations. However, the Purchasing Managers 'Index rose primarily due to improved activity in the services sector. The production index rose in September more than expected to a 27- month high of 52.1 compared with 51.5 in August, while the economists had expected a rise to 51.7. The index of purchasing managers in the services sector reached 52.1 compared with 50.7 in August. Activity in the services sector rose a second month in a row and expanded at the fastest pace since June 2011. Meanwhile, the index of manufacturing activity fell to 51.1 in September from 51.4 in August, yet industrial production increased for the third consecutive month. The EUR / USD pair fell to $ 1.350 area during the European session.

U.S. Dollar: The dollar was higher today against all currencies excluding the yen ahead of today's speech, the president Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Atlanta Fed Dudley Dennis Lockhart. Recall that last week, the Fed unexpectedly refrained from lowering monthly asset purchases, saying that more signs of sustainable recovery of the labor market.

Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar rose after today's publication of the preliminary data of the manufacturing index from HSBC PMI on China’s economy. This month the index rose to 51.2, from 50.1 in August, while analysts had expected growth of only 50.9.



American trading session:


U.S. Dollar: The little pressure on the U.S. dollar had data on the index of business activity in the industry. The index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. PMI Markit weakened to 52.8 versus 54.2 and 53.1 which was its previous result. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction in new orders, including export, as well as the deterioration of the employment situation.

Japanese Yen: Against the background of the fact that the U.S. Treasuries rose and their yields fell on discussing the Fed's rate of economic growth, the yen rose against most major currencies. The yield on 10-year bonds fell by 1 basis point to 2.726 %. The yield on 30 -year bonds also fell by 1 basis point to 3.755 %, and 5 - year securities - 1.5 basis points to 1.469 %. The speeches by leaders of the Fed after the decision of keeping the asset purchase program again raised the question of when the Fed is ready to stop easy monetary policy.
The USD / JPY pair fell to Y98.80 during the session.

Gold: The cost of October gold futures dropped to $ 1327.60 per ounce on the COMEX today expanding the losses of the previous session. Many investors continued to weigh the Fed's comments with regard to stimulus.

Oil:  The cost of the WTI November futures fell to $ 103.44 a barrel on the NYMEX. The oil prices fell markedly, as the higher the volume of production in Iraq and a possible improvement in US- Iranian relations have improved the outlook for oil supply.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 24.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair has declined to support level at 1.34882. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.34218.
Resistance: 1.35984, 1.37486, 1.38554
Support: 1.34882, 1.33143, 1.31674

GBPUSD
The pair is testing 1.60322 for support. If the pair breaks this level the pair will decline to 1.58543.
Resistance: 1.62050, 1.63316, 1.64636
Support: 1.60322, 1.58543, 1.56722

USDCHF
The pair has declined to the support level at 0.91079.
Resistance: 0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949
Support: 0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418

USDJPY
The pair is trading around 98.718.
Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567
Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD
The pair is trading between 0.94635 and 0.93493.
Resistance: 0.94635, 0.95611, 0.96579
Support: 0.93493, 0.92284, 0.91360

GBP/USD 24 Sept 2013

The pair advanced higher yesterday but no major developments took place; a contributing factor was the relatively calm fundamental scene.

Technical Outlook
The pair seems to be headed for 1.6170 again but a retracement lower in the 1.5960 area is still not out of the question. In fact we believe another touch of this minor support is necessary before price can resume its upward path. This encounter with support is likely to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals will be released today at 08:30 am GMT and are expected to increase from the previous 37.2 to 38.6. This indicator offers insight into the UK housing market and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 24 Sept 2013

The Forex Market: Unlike we expected, yesterday’s speech of ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t generate strong moves and the pair is still trading near the level of 1.3520 after another day when price was capped by a 65 pip range.

Technical Outlook
The pair did not choose a clear direction yesterday but the sellers managed to have some sort of control and took price below 1.3520. However, we cannot consider this move a true break of the level because it occurred on low volume and at the moment, the level is being re-tested from below. Our bias is still bullish and we anticipate at least a double top at 1.3570. The trend line drawn from the beginning of the month will offer support if touched and the same is true for the level of 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is announced, with the forecast being 108.4 compared to the previous 107.5. Higher numbers than forecast indicate optimism and are beneficial for the Euro. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the United States announce the Consumer Confidence which is a key indicator of future consumer spending which in turn represents the majority of overall economic activity. The indicator is expected to decrease slightly from the previous 81.5 to 79.9.

GBP/USD 23 September 2013

The pair continued its descent, almost nullifying the Pound’s gains obtained previously during the week but the movement was rather slow.

Technical Outlook

We consider that for today’s trading session a touch of 1.5960 is likely. If price gets there, a bounce higher is anticipated and possibly an attempt to resume the uptrend. Due to the correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD, Mario Draghi’s speech will have a hefty impact and we expect price to follow to an extent the movement of EUR/USD.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release any important data today and the pair’s movement will mostly be driven by the technical aspect.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 23 September 2013

The Forex Market: Friday’s movement was ranging and undecided, with both the buyers and sellers going back and forth in an attempt to gain the upper hand. No major economic data came out and this contributed to the ranging movement.

Technical Outlook

The major momentum belongs to the bulls and we may see a continuation move to the upside. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is last week’s high located at 1.3568. To the downside the first level of interest is 1.3450 but the technical aspect may be overshadowed by today’s fundamental events.


Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day and possibly of the week is the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. He is due to testify on the Euro Zone economic situation in Brussels, before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and volatility is expected; the direction depends on his attitude and comments.
Earlier in the day, at 07:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 50.2 compared to the previous 49.7 and half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI comes out. The anticipated value is 52.3 from the previous 51.8. Better than anticipated numbers for both indicators usually strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 20.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar index fell to its a seven-month low to 80 mark, after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates at the current level of 0.25 %, and keep the size of the monthly program of asset purchases at the previous level of $ 85 billion. The authorities found it necessary to wait for the new signs of steady improvement in the economy.


Japanese Yen: After the Ministry of Finance of Japan stated at the publication of the Government's report on the trade balance of the country that the trade deficit decreased to ?960 billion y ($ 9.8 billion) in August, while analysts expected a rise in the deficit to ?1,100 billion the yen continued to fall against all major currencies after. The USD / JPY pair rose to Y99.0 area.

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand dollar rose after a report published today gross domestic product report for the second quarter showed an increase by 2.5 %, exceeding the average forecast of analysts, who expected to see growth of 2.3%.

Swiss franc: The Swiss franc rose slightly against the dollar amid the release of economic forecasts SECO. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday cited the increase in domestic demand and raised its economic forecast for Switzerland for 2013 and 2014,
.

American trading session:


U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar rose slightly against its competitors after data on the labor market and U.S. housing, which were announced by the Department of Labor, showed that at the end of last week, the week ending September 14, the number of American workers who first applied for unemployment benefits rose slightly, increasing by 15K people, and reaching a level of 309K. The result was significantly better than the forecasts of experts who had expected growth to 323K from 292K, which was originally reported last month.

British Pound:  The pound fell markedly against the dollar, which in the first place was due to the publication from the Office for National Statistics of the weak performance on Britain. As it was shown by data, at the end of last month the amount of UK retail sales unexpectedly contracted due to marked decline in sales in food stores. According to the report, in a monthly basis, retail sales including automotive fuel, fell last month to 0.9%, while experts averaged this value by growth by 0.5%. Also, the data showed that sales excluding automotive fuel fell 1 percent after rising by 1.2% in July, while economists forecasted that they will remain unchanged.

Gold: The cost of the October gold futures on COMEX today rose to $ 1375.80 per ounce. The prices rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave unchanged its program of bonds purchasing. A promise of continuing pursuing a policy of "cheap money” has increased the demand for the precious metal.

Oil:  The cost of WTI oil brand fell for the fourth time in five days after the oil production in Libya has increased and President of Syria Bashar al-Assad said that Syria will provide information about its chemical weapons. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 107.00 a barrel on the NYMEX.

GBP/USD 20 September 2013

The UK Retail Sales came out with a value of -0.9%, worse than the anticipated 0.4% and this weakened the Pound, driving the pair lower for almost the entire day.

Technical Outlook
Although strong resistance was encountered at 1.6170 and the Pound gave back almost half of the gains acquired Wednesday, we consider that buyers will regain control and will drive the pair higher, at least for another touch of the level we just mentioned. The first notable level below price at the moment is 1.5960 and uptrend resumption may begin if it is touched, although it is more likely that price will begin to rise sooner.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major news or economic indicators today so we anticipate the market to be driven by the technical aspect.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 20 September 2013

The Forex Market: Almost all US economic data which came out yesterday was better than anticipated (Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) but the retracement generated by US Dollar strength found good support at 1.3520.

Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair is re-testing the broken level of 1.3520 and this looks like a good place for the pair to resume its upward movement. However, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is still in overbought territory so price may fall further to clear this condition. If this is the case and 1.3520 is broken to the down side, the next potential support is located at 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead with the only notable event being the speech of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The scheduled time is 11:30 am GMT and the place is the Society of Business Economics Luncheon in London. Public speeches of heads of Central Banks are always important and usually create volatility so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

GBP/CHF Final Put

The GBPCHF has continued its strong rally as visible in this D1 chart. This currency pair has now formed arising wedge formation which is a bearish chart pattern. We expect the GBPCHF to start a correction from its ascending resistance level where it currently trades back down to its ascending support level which is enforced by its 50 DMA.

MACD indicates that momentum has topped out and did not confirm the higher high set which makes the current rally vulnerable for a correction. RSI has formed a negative divergence and trades inoverbought territory. A breakdown should initiate the sell-off.

We recommend a short position at 1.4800 which would be an add-on to our two previous short positions which we took on July 31st and September 3rd at 1.4075 and 1.4600 respectively. We also recommend astop buy order at 1.4875 with a take profit target of 1.5000 in order to hedge this trade.

Traders who wish to exit this currency trade at a loss are advised to place their stop loss level at 1.4950. We will not use a stop loss order and execute this trade as recommended. Place your take profit target for all short positions at 1.4300.

Here are the reasons why we call the GBPCHF currency pair lower

• The GBPCHF has formed a rising wedge formation which is a bearish chart pattern
• MACD indicates that momentum has topped out and does not confirm the higher high
• RSI has formed a negative divergence and currently trades in overbought territory
• Profit taking after a strong rally in order to realize trading profits
• New short positions by institutional swing traders

Daily ANALYSIS FOR 18.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The euro rose today against almost all its competitors due to the anticipation of the announcement of the outcome of meetings of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve of U.S., which begins today and will end tomorrow. According to the median forecast of economists, the majority of the voting committee may decide to reduce the amount of monthly purchases of bonds to $ 75 billion to $ 85 billion
The Statistical Office Eurostat reported today that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus of the euro zone fell in July to a level of €11.1 billion, compared with a revised downward from the previous month at €13.5 billion. According to the average of experts surplus in trade in goods would have increased to 15.3 billion from €14.9 billion, which was originally reported. In addition, the data showed that exports in July totaled €155.9 billion, down 1.6% from June, while imports reached €144.8 billion, which is 0.1 % less than in the previous month. The EUR / USD pair rose to $ 1.3369 during the European session.


British Pound: The pound was slightly under pressure due to weak results of important macroeconomic reports. It is learned from the Office for National Statistics, at the end of last month, the growth of annual inflation slowed again, registering the second monthly decline in a row. According to the report, in the month of August consumer price index in UK rose by 2.7 % per annum, compared with an increase of 2.8 % in July, which was confirmed the experts' forecasts. In addition, it was reported that on a monthly basis the consumer price index rose 0.4 %, after the previous month. Meanwhile, the core inflation, which excludes the cost of energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, remained unchanged in August - at the level of 2 %, confounding economists' expectations for a moderate increase to 2.1 %. Another report from the Office for National Statistics showed that producer prices rose in August by 1.6 % per annum, compared with an increase of 2.1% a month earlier. Experts estimate the growth of this index was up 1.8%. In monthly terms, wholesale prices rose by 0.1 %, which followed a 0.2 percent increase in July. It was assumed that the growth will be 0.2 %. The pound rose slightly against the dollar; the GBP / USD pair rose to $ 1.5940, and then fell to $ 1.5878 which was accompanied by a release of weak data for UK.


American trading session:

Euro: The data published today institute ZEW of German showed that the index of sentiment in the business environment has grown significantly in the month of September, registering with the second monthly increase and exceeded the estimates of many experts. According to a report this month, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany's business climate rose to 49.6, up from 42 in August. Meanwhile, studies have shown that the current conditions index also rose, registering the third consecutive monthly gain. The value of this index in September rose to the level of 30.6, up from 18.3 last month. It was the best figure since June last year. The currency received slight support on this data.

U.S. Dollar: The data published  on U.S. inflation demonstrated that the consumer prices at the end of last month rose less than expected, continuing with a series of "soft" reports on inflation,  which will affect the decision of the Federal Reserve officials on future policy. According to the report, the August consumer price index rose by 0.1 %, compared with an increase of 0.2 % in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes food prices and energy costs, also rose by 0.1 % added that the CPI was slightly below forecasts of experts - at the level of 0.2 %, while the growth of the underlying index confirmed their expectations. In addition, it was reported that on an annual basis, consumer prices rose in August by 1.5 %, which was followed after increasing by 2.0 % a month earlier. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index rose by 1.8 %, compared with growth of 1.7 % in July. According to experts, the value of these indicators would grow by 1.6 % and 1.8%, respectively.

Canadian Dollar: The sales volume manufacturers in Canada rose in July by 1.7 % to 49.5 billion Canadian dollars. The results gave some hope for the growth GDP in Canada in July, as the data of producers’ show that the economy is growing. The currency grew against its competitors.

Gold:  The gold prices have stabilized slightly above the five-week low, as investors await news from the Fed about the reduction incentive program. The cost of the October futures of gold traded in the range of $ 1306.60 - $ 1323.70 per ounce today on the COMEX.

Oil:  The cost of U.S. light crude oil WTI became cheaper again today after agreement with Russia to eliminate chemical weapons to Syria, and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will start reducing incentives. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 105.30 a barrel on the NYMEX.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 18.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair is testing 1.33143.
Resistance: 1.33143, 1.34882, 1.35984
Support: 1.31674, 1.30277, 1.28630

GBPUSD
The pair is trading around 1.58543.
Resistance: 1.60322, 1.62050, 1.63316
Support: 1.58543, 1.56722, 1.54842

USDCHF
The pair is trading between 0.93069 and 0.92026.
Resistance: 0.93069, 0.93949, 0.95074
Support: 0.92026, 0.91079, 0.89635

USDJPY
The pair is trading between 99.888 and 98.718.
Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567
Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD
The pair has reached the Moving Average (100) at 0.93139 and may roll back to 0.92284.
Resistance: 0.93493, 0.94635, 0.95611
Support: 0.92284, 0.91366, 0.90284

GBP/USD 18 Sept 2013

Yesterday the UK Consumer Price Index came out exactly as anticipated, with a value of 2.7% and although this was initially perceived by the market as bearish, the sellers failed to capitalize on the momentum and they couldn’t continue the move.

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s mixed movement doesn’t bring a lot of clues about future direction but a touch of 1.5850 support is very possible. The first resistance is represented by the minor level of 1.5960 but the pair will be highly influenced by the important fundamental events scheduled for the day.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the MPC Meeting Minutes containing the outcome of the members’ votes on the Asset Purchase Facility and on the Interest Rate. The vote details show us the stance of each MPC member and also show if the members are starting to change their opinions about these two important aspects of the UK monetary policy. The US events mentioned earlier will greatly affect the pair as well.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 18 Sept 2013

The Forex Market: Although two important economic indicators were released yesterday -the German ZEW survey and the US Consumer Price Index – the pair traveled just a 50 pip distance and overall the day lacked volatility.

Technical Outlook
The previous 1.3325 resistance turned into support yesterday when a touch resulted in a bounce higher. However, due to the lack of clear movement, a clear technical prediction is less reliable and at the moment we are neutral on the pair. Today is a very important day for the US and we believe the technical aspect will be secondary. The most important levels to watch are 1.3400 as resistance and 1.3300 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce today the Federal Funds Rate which is not anticipated to change from the previous 0.25%. The scheduled time is 6:00 pm GMT and at the same time the FOMC will release their Economic Projections and the Rate Statement which contains insights into the reasons that determined the Rate decision and possible hints about future monetary direction. Half an hour later, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a Press Conference and will also answer audience questions. Strong moves and sharp reversals are possible at the time of all these events so we recommend to trade cautiously.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 17.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair is testing 1.33143.
Resistance: 1.33143, 1.34882, 1.35984
Support: 1.31674, 1.30277, 1.28630

GBPUSD
The pair has broken 1.58543 and aiming to 1.60322.
Resistance: 1.60322, 1.62050, 1.63316
Support: 1.58543, 1.56722, 1.54842

USDCHF
The pair is trading between 0.93069 and 0.92026.
Resistance: 0.93069, 0.93949, 0.95074
Support: 0.92026, 0.91079, 0.89635

USDJPY
The pair is trading between 99.888 and 98.718.
Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567
Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD
The pair has reached the Moving Average (100) at 0.93139 and may roll back to 0.92284.
Resistance: 0.93493, 0.94635, 0.95611
Support: 0.92284, 0.91366, 0.90284

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 16.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

 Euro: During the European session the EUR / USD pair rose to $ 1.3375 level. The impact on the trading dynamics of the asset had Mr. Draghi speech and data for the euro area. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed again the benchmark for future policy of ECB, saying that interest rates will be remained at current or lower levels for an extended period, as the economy is still fragile. The consumer price data showed that on an annualized basis the index in August rose by 1.3 % matching the preliminary estimates, while slowing the pace of its growth compared to July, when the value of this index increased by 1, 6%. As for the monthly inflation, it was at 0.1% in August, which completely corresponded to experts estimates.
U.S. Dollar: The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has withdrawn his candidacy for the post of chairman of the Federal Reserve System. In a letter to Barack Obama, he wrote that he wanted to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

British Pound: The pound rose sharply against its competitors, also responding to the gathering of the race of the candidates for the post of head of the Fed. The trading dynamics were also affected by information from Rightmove. As it became known today, the agency Rightmove expects housing prices in the country will grow by 6% this year, which is much faster than the earlier forecast of 4 percent growth. The Rightmove also raised its forecast for UK house prices, which was primarily due to the fact that demand continues to exceed supply, amid concerns that the new scheme the government to increase the activity in the housing market will fuel the real estate "bubble". However, the house prices fell by 1.5% on a monthly basis in September which was a part of the summer traffic; the market continued to record a fall in prices. The GBP / USD pair rose to $ 1.5960, and then retreated to $ 1.5910 during the European session.

Japanese Yen: The yen fell against its competitors after the Syrian Minister of National Reconciliation Mr. Heidar Ali said that Damascus pleased with the agreement reached by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov on the subject of chemical weapons in Syria. The USD / JPY pair fell to Y98.68 level then was able to Y99.16 area.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies against the background of mixed statistics, which were presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to the reports, in September, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fell to 6.29 , compared to 8.24 in August. According to the average forecast of economists, the value of production index would have grown to the level of 9.2. The fall was due to the deterioration of the employment situation. The industrial output rose moderately at the end of last month, which was another sign of recovery of the manufacturing sector. The seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production increased in August by 0.4 %, which was followed after zero growth in July, while the level of use of the existing production capacity increased by 0.2 percentage points - to the level of 77.8 %. However, the growth of industrial production was slightly below forecasts of experts - at the level of 0.5 %.

Gold: The cost of the October gold futures dropped to $ 1307.10 per ounce today on COMEX. The gold prices declined as investors' confidence that the Fed will begin reducing incentives in September.

Oil: The cost of U.S. light crude oil WTI brand fell to two-week low after the plan for the elimination of chemical weapons to Syria reduced the risk of disruptions in the export of oil from the Middle East. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 106.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

GBP/USD 17 Sept 2013

The Cable also opened with a gap to the upside but the rest of the day didn’t bring other major developments and the fact that UK didn’t release any news or economic data generated an uneventful trading session.

Technical Outlook

As we saw yesterday, price started to move to the down side in an attempt to close the gap we talked about. It is very possible the gap will be closed today but after that, the next move is uncertain: price created a double top at 1.5960, which is a bearish pattern, but the important level of 1.5850 might push price higher if the bearish movement continues and price touches this level.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release today at 08:30 am GMT the Consumer Price Index which shows the change in prices paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. A higher value indicates that inflation is rising and is usually perceived as bullish for the Pound by market participants. For today’s release the anticipated number is 2.7%, a decrease from the previous 2.8%.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

EUR/USD 17 Sept 2013

The Forex Market: The trading week opened with a major gap to the upside, almost 70 pips higher than it closed Friday but for almost the entire day, price moved in a pretty tight range. The Euro Zone CPI came out with a value of 1.3%, as anticipated and the event did not create strong moves.

Technical Outlook

Statistically weekly price gaps on this pair tend to be closed so we anticipate price to touch 1.3300 again because the gap originated near that area. Although gaps are usually closed, how much time passes until that happens is unknown so trading cannot be based on this information alone. However, 1.3400 was “threatened” today and this generated the move to the south so the distance to close the gap might be traveled today. The first level of interest is 1.3325, followed by 1.3300.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important data released today by the Euro Zone is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected to increase from the previous 42.0 to 45.3. Better numbers than anticipated will most likely strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher; the release is scheduled for 09:00 am GMT.

The US Consumer Price Index is released at 12:30 pm GMT and is expected to remain unchanged (0.2%). The indicator is closely watched by market participants because of its inflationary implications and under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the US Dollar, driving the pair lower.

Weekly Outlook 16-20 September 2013

Weekly Outlook 16-20 September 2013 bisa anda download di http://p.pw/7Jc

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for 12.09, 2013

EURUSD

The pair has reached 1.33143.

Resistance: 1.33143, 1.34882, 1.35984

Support: 1.31674, 1.30277, 1.28630

GBPUSD

The pair is aiming to the resistance level at 1.58543.

Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050

Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53348

USDCHF

The pair is working out Single Pick. The pair will reach 0.92026 if stays below 0.93069.

Resistance: 0.93949, 0.95074, 0.96220

Support: 0.93069, 0.92026, 0.91079

USDJPY

If the pair stays below 99.888 the pair will decline to 98.718.

Resistance: 99.888, 101.207, 102.567

Support: 98.718, 97.491, 96.400

AUDUSD

The pair has reached the Moving Average (100) at 0.93139 and rolling back to 0.92284.

Resistance: 0.93493, 0.94635, 0.95611

Support: 0.92284, 0.91366, 0.90284

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 12.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

British Pound: The GBP / USD pair during the European session crossed the mark of $ 1.5800 and continued to rising to $ 1.5840 after the release of the report on employment in the UK. According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits fell by 32,600 people to 1.40 million, to its lowest level since February 2009. The economists had expected a fall of 21,200. As a result, the unemployment rate in August fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in July; while the experts forecasted this value remain unchanged at 4.3%. The unemployment rate in the three months to July was 7.7%, which is lower by 0.1 percentage points lower than in the period from the last period of February to April. Unemployment rates were slightly lower than expected 7.8%.

Japanese Yen: The yen fell to a seven-week low against the dollar after U.S. President Barack Obama at a closed meeting with senators urged the Senate to delay the vote on approval of military intervention in Syria before considering possible solutions for the conflict. The additional pressure on the Japanese currency had a growth of stock indices on all Asia Pacific financial markets. Later, the USD / JPY pair fell to Y100.10 on correction

American trading session:

Euro: The euro rose sharply against the U.S. dollar reaching $ 1.3300 areas. The euro has grown substantially since the deposition of the vote on approval of military intervention in Syria has reduced demand for refuge assets.

Gold:  The gold prices fell slightly today which was associated with a reduced likelihood of military action against Syria. Also, the physical demand from Asia and other region remains weak, despite the fact that the price of gold fell below the psychologically key level of $ 1,400 an ounce. The cost of the October gold futures dropped to $ 1362.50 per ounce on COMEX today.

Oil:  The oil prices moderately increased, approaching with up to a its daily highs, for the first time after followed a fall of more than 4 % in the last two days against reducing concerns about a military strike on Syria. The cost of the October futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI rose to $ 107.77 a barrel on the NYMEX.

GBP/USD 12 Sept 2013

The pair was heavily influenced by the much better than expected numbers for the Claimant Count Change and as a result, price moved comfortably above the key resistance located at 1.5720.

Technical Outlook 
The key level of 1.5720 was breached decisively at the time of the important UK data release and the

EUR/USD 12 Sept 2013

Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls scored a good victory yesterday by touching 1.3300 resistance on the back of US Dollar weakness. The German Producer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.0% and as a result, the event had a low impact.

Technical Outlook 
The pair is showing signs of rejection in the form of the pin bar created

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 11.09, 2013

EURUSD
The pair has found support at 1.31674 and rising to 1.33143.
Resistance: 1.33143, 1.34882, 1.35984
Support: 1.31674, 1.30277, 1.28630

GBPUSD
The pair has risen to 1.57309. The pair may decline to support level at 1.56722 if stays below 1.57309.
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53348

USDCHF
The pair’s support is 0.93069, resistance is 0.93069.
Resistance: 0.93949, 0.95074, 0.96220
Support: 0.93069, 0.92026, 0.91079

USDJPY
The pair is aiming to the channel line at 100.707.
Resistance: 101.207, 102.567, 105.649
Support: 99.888, 98.718, 97.491

AUDUSD
The pair has reached the Moving Average (100) at 0.93139.
Resistance: 0.93493, 0.94635, 0.95611
Support: 0.92284, 0.91366, 0.90284

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 10.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

 Euro: The euro fell against the dollar after the data on industrial production in France came out weaker than expected. The information presented today by the statistical office Insee, showed that the volume of French industrial production fell unexpectedly by 0.6% in July compared with the previous month June where the rate was at 1.4% decline. The production, according to expectations, would have to be higher by 0.5%.  The EUR / USD pair fell to $ 1.3225 level during the European session.

Japanese Yen: The yen fell today against its competitors as the Bank of Japan announced its firm intention to continue easing the monetary policy. This was stated in the minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank, which was held last week. The USD / JPY pair rose to Y100.40 area during the European session.

Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar rose to a six-week high on the background of improved business confidence after the election. Accordingly to the National Australia Bank, the business confidence in Australia in August rose to its highest level since May 2011 against the expected victory of the coalition of the Liberal and Conservative parties in the recent elections.


American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The dollar fell against the euro losing the all previously earned a position on the

CHFJPY Second Put

The CHFJPY has bounced off of support as visible in this D1 chart. This currency pair has now moved higher and formed a narrow rising wedge formation which is a bearish chart pattern. It currently trades at the upper resistance level of its chart formation and the last daily candlestick indicates a potential reversal. We expect this currency pair to breakdown of it bearish chart formation and retrace back to

Sterling Flat Menanti Data Klaim Pengangguran

Monexnews - Sterling diperdagangkan flat terhadap dollar menjelang data klaim tunjangan pengangguran Inggris dirilis hari ini. Sterling sebelumnya menguat tiga hari beruntun setelah data non-farm payrolls AS pada Jumat lalu dirilis mengewakan.  

Selain itu komentar Menteri Keuangan Inggris, George Osborne, juga menguatkansterling. Osborne mengatakan bahwa ekonomi Inggris telah berbalik arah dan tengah berada pada tahap awal pemuliah. Sementara pada perdagangan kemarin sterling menguat hingga mendekati level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan terakhir, didukung oleh tanda-tanda pemulihan pasar perumahan Inggris mendorong ekspetasi pengetatan kebijakan moneter lebih cepat.

Sterling saat ini diperdagangakan pada kisaran 1.5722 dengan level tertinggi intraday 1.5740. Data klaim tunjangan pengangguran yang akan dirilis sore ini akan menjadi penggerak signifikan sterling. Jika data klaim yang dirilis lebih rendah dari prediksi maka sterling akan menguat, begitu juga sebaliknya. (pap)

Daily Market & Technical Review 10 September 2013

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Weekly Outlook Dan Review 9 - 13 September 2013

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• Non-farm Payrolls AS mengecewakan pasar. Hasil yang dirilis di bawah ekspektasi pasar 169
ribu vs. 178 ribu. Data bulan sebelumnya juga mengalami revisi turun dari sebelumnya 162 ribu
menjadi 104 ribu. Namun tingkat pengangguran di luar dugaan mencatat hasil yang lebih baik,
mengalami penurunan menjadi 7,3%. Akan tetapi penurunan tingkat pengangguran ini untuk
sebagian analis bukanlah hasil yang bagus karena ternyata tingkat partisipasi pencari kerja menurun
menjadi 63,2% yang merupakan tingkat partisipasi terendah sejak Agustus 1978. Data tenaga kerja
yang di bawah ekspektasi pasar ini membuat dollar AS melemah karena tapering atau pengurangan
stimulus pada rapat moneter Federal Reserve tanggal 17-18 September nanti mulai

GBP/USD 09 September 2013

After the initial bullish move generated by the worse than anticipated US Non Farm Employment numbers, the pair stopped and moved in a very narrow range until the end of the trading session, showing us the bulls are not in clear control.

Technical Outlook
We expect a slow and ranging day for the pair; another touch of 1.5600 is very possible but

EUR/USD 09 September 2013

The Forex Market: Friday’s main event was definitely the release of the US Non Farm Employment Claims which came out with a value of 169K, worse than the forecast 178K. This created US Dollar weakness and as a result price moved strongly to the upside.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s rally encountered heavy resistance before price could break 1.3200 to the upside.

Daily Report 09 September 2013

Market Review

Non Farm Payrolls AS Mengecewakan Dollar. Dollar AS terlempar dari level puncak 7-
pekan versus Euro pasca data krusial ketenagakerjaan AS mengecewakan investor. Non Farm
Payrolls AS bulan Agustus hanya menunjukkan pertumbuhan di bawah ekspektasi, dengan tingkat
pengangguran turun ke level terendah 4½-tahun seiring berkurangnya pencari kerja. Hal ini dapat
menunda rencana Fed untuk mengurangi stimulus moneter dalam pertemuan kebijakan 17-18
September mendatang.

Sterling Mengabaikan Pelemahan Data Domestik. Sterling terapresiasi ke level

Daily Report 06 September 2013

Market Review

• Komentar Draghi Melukai Euro. Euro anjlok ke level terendah 7-minggu versus Dollar AS seiring Presiden ECB Mario Draghi mengatakan bahwa para pembuat kebijakan mulai membahas pemangkasan suku bunga dalam rapat kebijakan hari Kamis. Draghi mengatakan opsi penurunan suku bunga akan dipertimbangkan jika tingkat bunga pasar uang meningkat terlalu tinggi. ECB juga menurunkan proyeksi GDP zona Euro untuk tahun 2014 menjadi 1% dari sebelumnya 1,1%.
• Defisit Perdagangan Bulan Juli Mengecewakan Aussie. Dollar Australia tergelincir dari level

Daily Report 05 September 2013

Market Review

• Wall Street Menguat Dua Sesi Beruntun, Fokus Suriah. Bursa saham AS ditutup menguat dua sesi beruntun, Dow menguat hampir 100 poin setelah laporan Beige Book dari The Fed yang optimis, 
• Emas Anjlok Dibawah $1.400 Menanti NFP dan Fokus Suriah. 
• AS Masih Pertimbangkan Serangan ke Suriah, Minyak Jatuh. 
• Penjualan Ford Naik 12%. Penjualan Ford Motor Co. pada bulan Agustus naik 12% dari tahun sebelumnya dan membukukan penjualan bulanan terbaik sejak Agustus 2006. 
• KitKat, Nama Sistem Operasi Android Terbaru. Google yang dikenal selalu memberikan nama sistem operasi Android untuk smartphone dengan nama makanan telah memilih nama merek permen KitKat untuk Android versi 4.4. 

Technical Outlook

• EUR/USD. Bias netral dalam

The Forex Market: Mixed trading environment before Interest Rates day

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s most anticipated economic indicator was the US Manufacturing PMI which came out with a value of 55.7, better than the anticipated 54.2. This strengthened the US Dollar but it did not generate an extended move.

Technical Outlook

Price continued its bearish path and is now trading at a safe distance below the level of 1.3200 but the four hour candles are showing wicks on their lower side, a sign that price might be heading higher. This, coupled with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (mentioned yesterday also) makes us believe that price will rise to touch 1.3200 again. A touch followed by a bounce lower will confirm the fact that this level has now turned into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 07:15 the Spanish Services PMI is announced, with an increase expected from 48.5 to 49.3. Half an hour later the Italian indicator with the same name comes out with a forecast value of 49.2 compared to the previous 48.7. Both indicators can strengthen the Euro if their values are higher than anticipated but they are considered to have a medium impact on the pair. At 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, measuring the difference between imported and exported products and services. The anticipated value is -38.6B and higher numbers are beneficial for the American economy.

GBP/USD

The pair had another clash with the resistance located at 1.5600 on the back of better than anticipated UK Construction PMI but price soon started to move down, towards 1.5500.

Technical Outlook
The four hour Pin candle formed right on resistance is very bearish and indicates that lower prices are probable for the pair. The next support is located at 1.5500 and our bias is bearish for another touch or even break of this level. However, this outcome depends a lot on the UK economic data that comes out today.

Fundamental Outlook
The only UK indicator of the day is the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector. Today’s anticipated number is 59.8, a small decrease from last month’s 60.2. Better numbers usually strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher. The US Trade Balance will also influence the pair’s movement.

Daily Report 04 September 2013

Market Review
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• Euro Was-Was Menjelang Rapat ECB. Euro anjlok ke posisi terendah 1½-bulan versus Dollar AS, dipicu ekspektasi bahwa European Central Bank masih akan menjaga komitmen suku bunga rendah guna menopang pemulihan yang baru dimulai. 
• Data Konstruksi Inggris Menopang Sterling. Sterling menyentuh level puncak 6-hari terhadap Dollar AS pasca sebuah laporan menunjukkan indeks konstruksi Inggris tumbuh pada laju tercepat sejak September 2007. 
• Keputusan Kebijakan RBA Melegakan Aussie. 

Monex Daily Report 03 September 2013

• Risk Aversion Berkurang, Dollar Melenggang.
• Manufaktur Inggris Memacu Optimisme Sterling.
• Data China Coba Memulihkan Aussie.
• China Revisi GDP 2012 Menjadi 7.7%.

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Weekly Outlook 2-6 September 2013

Tapering Menguat Dengan Data Ekonomi AS
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Monex Daily Report 02 September 2013

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Market Review

• Euro Terganjal Pelemahan Data Ekonomi. 
• Data Positif Inggris Gagal Mendongkrak Sterling. 
• Aussie Merosot Untuk Bulan Ke-5 Beruntun. 
• Buruknya Data AS Sinyalkan Lambatnya Perekonomian. 
• Bursa Asia Pulih Ditengah Tertahannya Tindakan Atas Suriah. 
• Wall Street Cetak Performa Bulanan Terburuk Sejak Mei 2012.