Rabu, 18 September 2013

Daily ANALYSIS FOR 18.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The euro rose today against almost all its competitors due to the anticipation of the announcement of the outcome of meetings of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve of U.S., which begins today and will end tomorrow. According to the median forecast of economists, the majority of the voting committee may decide to reduce the amount of monthly purchases of bonds to $ 75 billion to $ 85 billion
The Statistical Office Eurostat reported today that the seasonally adjusted trade surplus of the euro zone fell in July to a level of €11.1 billion, compared with a revised downward from the previous month at €13.5 billion. According to the average of experts surplus in trade in goods would have increased to 15.3 billion from €14.9 billion, which was originally reported. In addition, the data showed that exports in July totaled €155.9 billion, down 1.6% from June, while imports reached €144.8 billion, which is 0.1 % less than in the previous month. The EUR / USD pair rose to $ 1.3369 during the European session.


British Pound: The pound was slightly under pressure due to weak results of important macroeconomic reports. It is learned from the Office for National Statistics, at the end of last month, the growth of annual inflation slowed again, registering the second monthly decline in a row. According to the report, in the month of August consumer price index in UK rose by 2.7 % per annum, compared with an increase of 2.8 % in July, which was confirmed the experts' forecasts. In addition, it was reported that on a monthly basis the consumer price index rose 0.4 %, after the previous month. Meanwhile, the core inflation, which excludes the cost of energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, remained unchanged in August - at the level of 2 %, confounding economists' expectations for a moderate increase to 2.1 %. Another report from the Office for National Statistics showed that producer prices rose in August by 1.6 % per annum, compared with an increase of 2.1% a month earlier. Experts estimate the growth of this index was up 1.8%. In monthly terms, wholesale prices rose by 0.1 %, which followed a 0.2 percent increase in July. It was assumed that the growth will be 0.2 %. The pound rose slightly against the dollar; the GBP / USD pair rose to $ 1.5940, and then fell to $ 1.5878 which was accompanied by a release of weak data for UK.


American trading session:

Euro: The data published today institute ZEW of German showed that the index of sentiment in the business environment has grown significantly in the month of September, registering with the second monthly increase and exceeded the estimates of many experts. According to a report this month, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany's business climate rose to 49.6, up from 42 in August. Meanwhile, studies have shown that the current conditions index also rose, registering the third consecutive monthly gain. The value of this index in September rose to the level of 30.6, up from 18.3 last month. It was the best figure since June last year. The currency received slight support on this data.

U.S. Dollar: The data published  on U.S. inflation demonstrated that the consumer prices at the end of last month rose less than expected, continuing with a series of "soft" reports on inflation,  which will affect the decision of the Federal Reserve officials on future policy. According to the report, the August consumer price index rose by 0.1 %, compared with an increase of 0.2 % in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes food prices and energy costs, also rose by 0.1 % added that the CPI was slightly below forecasts of experts - at the level of 0.2 %, while the growth of the underlying index confirmed their expectations. In addition, it was reported that on an annual basis, consumer prices rose in August by 1.5 %, which was followed after increasing by 2.0 % a month earlier. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index rose by 1.8 %, compared with growth of 1.7 % in July. According to experts, the value of these indicators would grow by 1.6 % and 1.8%, respectively.

Canadian Dollar: The sales volume manufacturers in Canada rose in July by 1.7 % to 49.5 billion Canadian dollars. The results gave some hope for the growth GDP in Canada in July, as the data of producers’ show that the economy is growing. The currency grew against its competitors.

Gold:  The gold prices have stabilized slightly above the five-week low, as investors await news from the Fed about the reduction incentive program. The cost of the October futures of gold traded in the range of $ 1306.60 - $ 1323.70 per ounce today on the COMEX.

Oil:  The cost of U.S. light crude oil WTI became cheaper again today after agreement with Russia to eliminate chemical weapons to Syria, and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will start reducing incentives. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 105.30 a barrel on the NYMEX.


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