Selasa, 17 September 2013

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 16.09, 2013

Asian and European trading sessions:

 Euro: During the European session the EUR / USD pair rose to $ 1.3375 level. The impact on the trading dynamics of the asset had Mr. Draghi speech and data for the euro area. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed again the benchmark for future policy of ECB, saying that interest rates will be remained at current or lower levels for an extended period, as the economy is still fragile. The consumer price data showed that on an annualized basis the index in August rose by 1.3 % matching the preliminary estimates, while slowing the pace of its growth compared to July, when the value of this index increased by 1, 6%. As for the monthly inflation, it was at 0.1% in August, which completely corresponded to experts estimates.
U.S. Dollar: The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has withdrawn his candidacy for the post of chairman of the Federal Reserve System. In a letter to Barack Obama, he wrote that he wanted to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

British Pound: The pound rose sharply against its competitors, also responding to the gathering of the race of the candidates for the post of head of the Fed. The trading dynamics were also affected by information from Rightmove. As it became known today, the agency Rightmove expects housing prices in the country will grow by 6% this year, which is much faster than the earlier forecast of 4 percent growth. The Rightmove also raised its forecast for UK house prices, which was primarily due to the fact that demand continues to exceed supply, amid concerns that the new scheme the government to increase the activity in the housing market will fuel the real estate "bubble". However, the house prices fell by 1.5% on a monthly basis in September which was a part of the summer traffic; the market continued to record a fall in prices. The GBP / USD pair rose to $ 1.5960, and then retreated to $ 1.5910 during the European session.

Japanese Yen: The yen fell against its competitors after the Syrian Minister of National Reconciliation Mr. Heidar Ali said that Damascus pleased with the agreement reached by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov on the subject of chemical weapons in Syria. The USD / JPY pair fell to Y98.68 level then was able to Y99.16 area.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies against the background of mixed statistics, which were presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to the reports, in September, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fell to 6.29 , compared to 8.24 in August. According to the average forecast of economists, the value of production index would have grown to the level of 9.2. The fall was due to the deterioration of the employment situation. The industrial output rose moderately at the end of last month, which was another sign of recovery of the manufacturing sector. The seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production increased in August by 0.4 %, which was followed after zero growth in July, while the level of use of the existing production capacity increased by 0.2 percentage points - to the level of 77.8 %. However, the growth of industrial production was slightly below forecasts of experts - at the level of 0.5 %.

Gold: The cost of the October gold futures dropped to $ 1307.10 per ounce today on COMEX. The gold prices declined as investors' confidence that the Fed will begin reducing incentives in September.



Oil: The cost of U.S. light crude oil WTI brand fell to two-week low after the plan for the elimination of chemical weapons to Syria reduced the risk of disruptions in the export of oil from the Middle East. The cost of the October futures fell to $ 106.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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