Rabu, 04 September 2013

The Forex Market: Mixed trading environment before Interest Rates day

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s most anticipated economic indicator was the US Manufacturing PMI which came out with a value of 55.7, better than the anticipated 54.2. This strengthened the US Dollar but it did not generate an extended move.


Technical Outlook
Price continued its bearish path and is now trading at a safe distance below the level of 1.3200 but the four hour candles are showing wicks on their lower side, a sign that price might be heading higher. This, coupled with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (mentioned yesterday also) makes us believe that price will rise to touch 1.3200 again. A touch followed by a bounce lower will confirm the fact that this level has now turned into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 07:15 the Spanish Services PMI is announced, with an increase expected from 48.5 to 49.3. Half an hour later the Italian indicator with the same name comes out with a forecast value of 49.2 compared to the previous 48.7. Both indicators can strengthen the Euro if their values are higher than anticipated but they are considered to have a medium impact on the pair. At 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, measuring the difference between imported and exported products and services. The anticipated value is -38.6B and higher numbers are beneficial for the American economy.

GBP/USD

The pair had another clash with the resistance located at 1.5600 on the back of better than anticipated UK Construction PMI but price soon started to move down, towards 1.5500.



Technical Outlook
The four hour Pin candle formed right on resistance is very bearish and indicates that lower prices are probable for the pair. The next support is located at 1.5500 and our bias is bearish for another touch or even break of this level. However, this outcome depends a lot on the UK economic data that comes out today.

Fundamental Outlook
The only UK indicator of the day is the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector. Today’s anticipated number is 59.8, a small decrease from last month’s 60.2. Better numbers usually strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher. The US Trade Balance will also influence the pair’s movement.


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